Next Step Labs / R&DWe test our own ideas rigorously, and report what actually happens
Labs is Next Step Labs' research arm. We publish our methodology, our process for catching false positives, and the honest status of every hypothesis we test, including the ones that didn't work.
Signal & project status
A running, honest record of what we've tested.
Weather markets
Did not hold under power testing
MLB sports markets
Collapsed after small-sample promise faded
Multiple LLM prompting approaches
No consistent edge across variants
NOAA forecast overlays
No signal beyond baseline
Fed economic data overlays
No signal beyond baseline
Commodities, specific calibration
Unresolved, no capital at risk yet
Want the detail behind any of these?
Each test has a full writeup — methodology, data, and what we concluded. Request the one you're interested in.
Research notes
Methodology
How we kill a bad hypothesis before it costs anything
Bootstrap confidence intervals, cluster-adjusted testing, and why most early "edges" are noise.
Live research
Inside the commodities forward-test
An unresolved signal, tracked in real time, with no capital at risk until it's proven.
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No spam. Occasional dispatches when there's something honest to report.